GIFT Nifty up 40 points: Trading setup for today's market session

Last week, the markets continued their consolidation phase, losing nearly 1% as the corrective trend persisted. This was largely driven by ongoing selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), mixed corporate earnings, and a sharp rise in crude oil prices, all of which dampened investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the market to maintain a cautious tone next week due to several domestic and global factors. Key corporate earnings from major companies like Hindustan Unilever, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, BPCL, and Hindustan Petroleum are expected to be released soon, and these results will play a significant role in shaping market sentiment.

As for the pre-market action, GIFT Nifty, which is an early indicator of the Indian market, showed a positive sign by rising 42.50 points (or 0.19%) to reach 23,280. This suggests that the Indian stock market, known as Dalal Street, will likely have a positive start on Monday.

Looking at the technical side, the short-term trend of the Nifty index remains weak, as it is moving in a range. Experts say that a decisive rise above the 23,400 level could spark renewed buying interest. The immediate support level is placed at 23,100, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities.

India VIX, which measures market fear and volatility, rose 1.83% to close at 15.75, signaling increased concern among investors.

Globally, US stocks had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting significant gains. Despite ongoing inflation concerns and upcoming policy changes from President Trump, investor sentiment remained positive, boosted by strong earnings reports and optimism about the economy. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady, with potential rate cuts projected. The technology sector, in particular, saw strong growth, with stocks like Intel and Qorvo performing well.

Asian markets also saw a positive start on Monday, following the gains in the US. This was partly due to a positive conversation between US President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Major Asian markets saw gains, with Hang Seng futures rising 1.2%, Japan’s Topix up 1%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increasing by 0.3%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.9%.

Oil prices recovered on Monday as concerns over supply issues remained, particularly after the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s energy sector over the ongoing war in Ukraine.

In terms of investor activity, FIIs turned net sellers on Friday, offloading shares worth Rs 3,318 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 2,573 crore.

The Indian rupee traded in a narrow range on Friday, ending 1 paisa higher at 86.60 against the US dollar. The rupee faced pressure due to the outflow of foreign funds and a dip in domestic equity markets, which negatively impacted investor sentiment.

Finally, the net short position of FIIs increased from Rs 2.97 lakh crore on Thursday to Rs 3.26 lakh crore on Friday, reflecting a negative outlook in the market.

This detailed analysis reflects the current state of the markets and offers insight into what to expect in the coming week.

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