On Monday morning, the Indian stock market began its session on a slightly weak note. This happened because investors were feeling worried about what might happen next with tariffs between the United States and other countries. There was news that US officials have said there will be a delay in new tariff decisions, but they did not share exact details about what would change. This confusion made people in the market cautious at the start of the week.

What Did President Trump Say About Trade Agreements and Tariffs?

On Sunday, President Donald Trump told everyone that the United States is almost ready to finish many trade agreements with different countries. He said these deals will be completed within the next few days. He also added that the US will tell other countries about new tariff rates by July 9, and these new rates will start from August 1. Because of this announcement, traders are waiting to see how it will affect India and the global market.

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Sensex and Nifty Fall Slightly in Early Trade

At around 9:18 am on Monday, the BSE Sensex was trading down by 131 points, which is around a 0.16% drop, making it stand at 83,301 points. Similarly, the Nifty50 index was down by 37 points, or 0.15%, and it stood at 25,425 points. This shows that both major Indian benchmark indices started the week with small losses due to global worries.

Why Is There Worry About US-India Trade Deal?

Market experts say there are some concerns about whether India and the US will reach a trade deal before the July 9 deadline when the US will announce new tariff rates. If India and the US sign an interim trade deal before that date, it will be a positive move for the market. But until that is clear, investors are likely to remain cautious.

Impact of SEBI Report on Jane Street

Another reason for worry in the Indian market is the SEBI report on Jane Street. Jane Street is a big global trading firm, and recently, SEBI, which is India’s market regulator, published a report related to the company. This has created uncertainty because any regulatory action can impact the stock market. Experts say the volume of derivative trading might decrease because of this, which can affect stock exchanges and some brokerage firms. Their share prices can be impacted in the short term.

Expert View on Current Market Situation

VK Vijayakumar, who is the Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said that the concerns about the US-India trade deal and SEBI’s report on Jane Street will be very important for the market today. He said,

“There are reports that India and the US might sign an interim trade deal before the July 9 tariff deadline. If that happens, it will be good for the market. Regarding the SEBI report on Jane Street, people will watch closely how it affects trading volumes. Short-term problems like these do not have a long-term impact on the market. In fact, these dips can be good opportunities for long-term investors to buy high-quality stocks, especially fairly valued large-cap stocks.”

Market Performance Last Week

Last week, the Indian stock market closed on a positive note on Friday, even though trading was largely rangebound. The Nifty ended at 25,461 points, gaining 55.7 points in the session. The Sensex closed with an increase of 193 points, ending at 83,432 points. This shows that even if the market was moving within a limited range, it ended the week on a good note.

Technical Analysis for This Week

Nifty 50 Outlook

According to Choice Broking, a brokerage firm, the Nifty index has started moving upwards again after coming out of its recent consolidation range. In simple words, consolidation means the market was moving sideways without any big up or down moves for some time.

They explained that on the weekly chart, Nifty is in Wave 5 of the Elliott Impulse structure. This is a technical analysis theory that shows the market is likely to continue moving up in this phase. The brokerage says the next big targets for Nifty are at 27,300 points and 28,600 points based on Fibonacci extension levels.

On the downside, if the market falls, key support levels are at 25,000 points and 24,500 points. These are the levels where buyers are expected to come back and lift the market again.

Support and Resistance Levels for Nifty

• Support Levels: 25,200 – 25,000

• Resistance Levels: 26,000 – 26,200

• Overall Bias: The market is expected to remain bullish, meaning traders and investors believe prices will rise in the coming weeks.

Bank Nifty Performance and Outlook

The Bank Nifty index, which tracks banking sector stocks, ended last week at 57,031.90 points, down by 0.72% compared to the previous week. Even though there was selling pressure at higher levels, it managed to stay above the important 57,000 mark.

According to the brokerage firm, Bank Nifty will face resistance in the 57,300 to 57,500 range. This means if it tries to move up, it may find it difficult to cross this zone easily. However, if the index manages to continue its upward move, ICICI Bank is expected to support the rise among private banks. In public sector banks, State Bank of India (SBIN) and Canara Bank (CANBK) are expected to show strength.

What Do Technical Indicators Say About Bank Nifty?

On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This shows an overall upward trend. However, because there is selling pressure at higher levels, it suggests that the index is going through a consolidation phase. This means it is neither going up too much nor falling down sharply, and is waiting for a new trigger for its next move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Bank Nifty is at 65.39. This indicates a sideways move and shows that the index might consolidate for some more time. The key downside support levels are between 56,700 and 56,500. If the index falls below these levels, it might see further selling.

What Should Investors Do?

Overall, experts say that the current worries about US tariffs, the SEBI report on Jane Street, and the upcoming US-India trade deal will decide the market’s direction this week. Investors are advised not to panic because such short-term problems usually do not affect the market in the long term. Instead, these market dips can be used by long-term investors to buy good quality stocks at better prices.

It is also important to keep an eye on the upcoming Q1 company results, as these will show how companies have performed in the last quarter and can impact their stock prices. Analysts are expecting modest results, so any company that performs better than expected will see its stock prices rise.

For now, market experts advise investors to remain calm, watch the developments closely, and invest wisely in strong large-cap stocks that have good growth potential in the long run.