At this weekend’s Munich Security Conference, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed a sense of historic change among European leaders, stating: "Some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed anymore."
Transatlantic relations have been under pressure over the past year following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. European concerns intensified after Trump’s proposal to annex Greenland, raising questions about the U.S.’s commitment to defending Europe under NATO’s collective security framework.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered limited reassurance during his conference speech. While he emphasized a willingness to work with Europe and adopted a warmer tone than Vice President JD Vance last year, he criticized Europe’s recent political direction and notably did not mention NATO, Russia, or Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine—critical issues where U.S.-Europe alignment has weakened.
With the conflict in Ukraine entering its fifth year, European leaders stressed the urgency of enhancing their own defence capabilities and reducing dependence on U.S. support. This approach aligns, in theory, with the Trump administration’s expectation that Europe assumes a primary role in its conventional defence, while the U.S. maintains its nuclear umbrella and NATO’s mutual defence commitments.
A Stronger European Pillar in NATO
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer underscored the need for a stronger “European pillar” within NATO. This initiative is seen both as a strategic hedge against potential future U.S. disengagement and as a step toward greater European self-reliance.
Merz revealed ongoing discussions with Macron regarding a potential European nuclear deterrent, noting that France currently holds the only fully independent nuclear capability in Europe. Britain’s Trident missiles, in contrast, rely on U.S. technology and maintenance.
From Words to Action
The key challenge remains whether European nations can translate commitments into action. This includes procurement and development of advanced weapons systems, addressing gaps in long-range missile capabilities, and improving defence coordination across countries.
In response to rising Russian threats and U.S. exhortations, Europe has increased defence spending. NATO members agreed last year to raise core defence expenditures from 2% of GDP to 3.5%, with an additional 1.5% allocated for other security-related investments. These measures signal cautious optimism, though questions linger about Europe’s ability to sustain long-term self-reliance.
